OBAMA'S FALL? - AT 10:13 A.M. ET:  Although today's Rasmussen tracker shows a sudden drop in President Obama's popularity, it has remained remarkably high...despite widespread disapproval of some of his policies.

Why?  And what chance do we have to see the president's ratings go down?  Dick Morris has a provocative analysis.  He's sometimes right, sometimes wrong, but always interesting:

The real recession — dating from the stock market collapse — began four months before Bush left office. And it is now four months since Obama was inaugurated. From this vantage, it still looks to voters like Bush's recession.

But, it will become increasingly obvious that the large deficit Obama has incurred while pursuing his cure for the recession is, on its own, causing more problems than it solves. As high interest rates and, most likely, inflation, begin to set in — with no relief in unemployment — it will be obvious that Obamanomics isn't working and is, in fact, aggravating the economic trouble.

And...

Obama now faces a choice of poisons.

He can leave taxes as they are and take the poison of high interest rates, rapid inflation and a new recession, all caused by the massive borrowing he has forced on the Treasury...

Or Obama can break his pledge and raise taxes on everybody. His soak-the-rich approach will not be enough to cover the deficit. Especially when one factors in his health-care proposals, big tax increases on the middle class become an increasing likelihood. And when we consider his cap and trade legislation, huge increases in utility rates also loom.

Either poison will make it clear that the economy is suffering from the medicine Obama administered rather than the original disease that started under Bush.

Conclusion...

Some economists think we will have an L-shaped recession from which we do not emerge for years and years. Others think it will be a W-shaped recession (not Bush's W), in which we emerge briefly and then go back down again. But a U-shaped recession in which we go down and then come bouncing back probably cannot happen with Obama's deficits now firmly in place. Then it will become clear that the cure was worse than the disease.

COMMENT:  That makes a lot of sense.  Add to economic woes a growing perception that Obama is spineless in national security, and we may have a perfect mix for Republican gains in next year's congressional races - if the GOP can capitalize on the advantages that come its way. 

We'll watch closely the American public's reaction (remember Americans?) to the president's hey-we're-pals speech in Egypt tomorrow.  We think the president's political situation is fairly precarious, waiting for public perception to catch up with reality, and maybe for one major incident to start the voters on a serious rethinking.

June 3, 2009